Covid-19 test accuracy supplement: The math of Bayes’ Theorem
Example 1: Low pre-test probability (asymptomatic patients in Massachusetts)
First, we need to estimate the pre-test probability that asymptomatic Massachusetts residents have Covid-19. We know that in the state approximately 2% of all tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, are positive. This is not exactly the same as the percentage of tested people who have Covid-19, but it’s a good approximation.
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