Massive amounts of H5N1 vaccine would be needed if there’s a bird flu pandemic. Can we make enough?

The unsettling reality of H5N1 bird flu circulating in dairy cow herds in multiple parts of the United States is raising anxiety levels about whether this dangerous virus, which has haunted the sleep of people who worry about influenza pandemics for more than 20 years, could be on a path to acquiring the ability to easily infect people.

To be clear, there is no evidence that this is currently the case — the sole confirmed human case reported in Texas three weeks ago was in a farm worker who had contact with cattle. There is no way to predict if the virus will acquire the capacity to spread between people, or when and under what conditions it would make that fateful leap if it does.

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