Opinion: Prediction markets and the future of Covid-19
Forecasters have used all sorts of tools to gauge where the U.S. and the world are headed with Covid-19, ranging from epidemiologic models to historical ones. Here’s another possibility: prediction markets.
Prediction markets use a wisdom of crowds approach to aggregate beliefs and predict future outcomes. They typically function through bets in futures contracts that pay out on expiration of defined “yes or no” outcomes. The Iowa Electronic Markets, for example, successfully predicted the outcomes of every presidential election from 1988 to 2000 to within 1.5 percentage points.
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