The Brexit predictions that came true, those that didn’t—and what we didn’t see coming
The battle over Brexit triggered extreme claims about its likely impact on UK healthcare, ranging from a collapse in staffing and drug supplies to a big funding increase and a bonfire of red tape. Then came the covid pandemic, which all but obscured any Brexit effect.But, six years after the vote and 19 months after the UK finally separated from the EU, it’s possible to judge which predictions were accurate, which ones were not—and the things we didn’t see coming.Predictions that came trueNurse recruitment from Europe collapsed, although medical recruitment didn’tThe European supply of nurses plummeted, but it’s been made up by immigration from outside the European Economic Area (EEA). Mark Dayan, policy analyst and head of public affairs at the Nuffield Trust, says, “Before the vote to leave, there was heavy recruitment of nurses from the EEA—more than 10 000 a year at one point—and that was a fairly…
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